Providing no support to an insurgency, no matter the territorial picture, also raises the medium-term risk of emboldening Moscow to continue its threats to Europe unabated.
#Insurgency free#
Rather than Moscow fighting for control in Ukraine, it is free to turn its attention elsewhere. In this scenario, the West also has the least amount of influence over what happens inside Ukraine. This leaves a rump Western Ukraine, with limited economic resources and few defenses, largely dependent on neighbors to the west for economic support and assistance, and with a refugee population that is likely to be sizable. The riskiest scenario in the “no support” category is if Moscow stops at the Dnieper River, taking half of Ukraine, including Kyiv.That sets up a dynamic in which every insurgent attack on Russian forces is an irritant between Russia and the West, and Moscow has at its disposal several impactful tools for retaliation, including cyberattacks and economic leverage. The riskiest scenario for allied Western nations is one in which Russia takes all of Ukraine and NATO members provide materiel support to insurgents.
Specifically, how might support for an insurgency work if Russia takes the Donbas eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper, including Kyiv or the entire country? Six scenarios emerge: in three, the West provides support to Ukrainians who fight on against a Russian occupying power in three, it does not, either because it is too politically risky or there is little to no organized insurgent force to support. This commentary examines the challenges and benefits for the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of supporting an insurgency in Ukraine, depending on how much Ukrainian territory Russia takes. Support can take many forms safe haven, financial support, materiel deliveries, intelligence support, and training can all keep an insurgency operating even when under tremendous pressure from an occupying power. The direct support of neighboring state military forces contributed to successful insurgencies in Bosnia, Afghanistan in the 1980s, Tajikistan, Congo, and elsewhere, according to a RAND study from 2001. Europe is threatening sanctions and promising disgrace for Moscow, but it may soon face the most difficult question of retaliation: whether to provide vital support for a Ukrainian insurgency.Įxternal support is a decisive factor in the success of an insurgency. The number of forces Russia has massed on the Ukrainian border would allow for incursions along three fronts simultaneously-from Russia in the east, Belarus in the north, and Crimea in the south. Russia looks likely to invade Ukraine in the coming weeks, if not days.
Scenario Analysis on a Ukrainian Insurgency Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses.Building Sustainable and Inclusive Democracy.Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations.Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts.Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation.Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation.Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy.
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